中美贸易战何时休? [美国媒体]


​When will the current trade and economic dispute between the USA and China be resolved?


James Graham, Network Systems Engineer at Decline To State
It will be at least a few years before it shows any sign of ending. Here’s the list of demands from Trump that Xi has called “unreasonable”:
1. Trade Balance. The United States wants China to cut its trade surplus with the United States by $200 billion by the end of 2020 compared with 2018 levels. The U.S. demand also requires that China reach 75 percent of its commitment to increase its purchase of U.S. goods by $100 billion for the year starting June 1, 2018, and that it meet 50 percent of an additional $100 billion increase for the year beginning June 1, 2019.

1. 贸易平衡。美国希望中国在2020年底前将对美贸易顺差在2018年的基础上削减2000亿美元。美国还要求中国在2018年6月1日开始的一年里,将对美国商品的购买量增加到1000亿美元,将贸易顺差降低到75%,并在2019年6月1日开始的一年里,中国的对美商品购买量再增加1000亿美元,将贸易顺差降低到50%。

2. Intellectual Property and Technology Theft. The U.S. delegation demanded Beijing immediately halt the subsidies and support its gives industries as part of its Made in China 2025 plan to make the country a leader in advanced technologies, stop policies that promote technology transfers, and stop government-backed cyber theft of intellectual property. In addition, the United States wants China to withdraw its complaint at the World Trade Organization about the Section 301 investigation by July 1 and to not respond in kind to any actions that the United States takes against China as an outcome of the investigation — such as placing 25 percent tariffs on $50 billion worth of goods.

2. 知识产权和技术盗窃。美国代表团要求北京立即停止补贴以及对中国制造2025计划中那部分产业的支持(该计划旨在使中国成为先进技术的领导者),停止强迫技术转让的政策,并制止政府支持的黑客盗窃知识产权的行为。此外,美国希望中国撤回7月1日在世界贸易组织对301条款调查的投诉,并承诺调查结果出来以后,中国不会以与美国对抗中国同样的方式对美国采取任何行动,比如对进口自美国的价值500亿美元的商品征收25%的关税。

3. Tariffs and Non-Tariff Barriers. The United States wants China to further open up its economy to foreign imports, demanding that China lower its tariffs to U.S. levels in all noncritical sectors. The United States also demands China remove certain non-tariff barriers in many key sectors, including those associated with its Made in China 2025 initiative, while also recognizing that the United States will impose tariffs and restrictions in critical sectors. The United States also demanded China open up its economy for U.S. services and agricultural products.


4. Investment Restrictions. With the United States planning on significant investment restrictions on Chinese investors in strategic sectors, it is demanding that China not challenge them or retaliate.
5. China's Investment Restrictions. The United States is demanding that China make it easier for U.S. companies to invest in the country. It wants Beijing to improve its negative list for foreign investment (this is a list of sectors where China bans foreign investment and/or requires regulators to grant special approval) . The United States also wants the removal of foreign investment restriction and ownership requirements.

4. 投资限制。美国计划对战略领域的中国投资者实施重大投资限制,要求中国不要挑战他们,也不要报复。
5. 中国的投资限制。美国要求中国让美国公司更容易在中国投资。它希望北京改善外商投资环境,取消一系列的消极因素(在很多领域中国禁止外国投资和/或需要监管机构给予专项审批)。美国还希望中国取消外国投资限制和所有权要求。

6. China's Non-Market Economy Status. The United States wants China to drop the vital case at the WTO challenging U.S. treatment of China as a non-market economy.

6. 中国的非市场经济地位。美国希望中国放弃在世贸组织对美国对待中国非市场经济的态度提出挑战的关键案件。

Xi isn’t backing down and the issues for which the trade war was started are issues for both parties. The next round of elections will require candidates to commit to being tough on China.



Bhawan P. Singh, Dad, Husband, Former US Army Officer, Citizen, CEO.
Not for 10 years atleast. The biggest problem here is if the world’s suppliers and businesses will ever be able to trust US businesses again. Now, if it’s becoming very expensive to do business with the US, these world’s suppliers and businesses are finding other lucrative replacement markets, will they ever come back to US when it all calms down? Why would they when we can’t even keep our promises, especially when we randomly throw 20% tariffs in the middle of ongoing deal, why would they trust us again? Why should they?


I can tell you from extensive personal experiences that paperwork, contracts and statements are all good for lawyers and accountants. But at the end of the day, when I go abroad and shake hands with a foreign business, my word is my bond, and I am expected to deliver on my promises. When this faith is broken, it is extremely painful and very difficult to earn it back.
Trade war is not like a movie is ending at certain time. It will be much more challenging to rebuild trust with foreign businesses when it all calms down, when it will calm down. This issue has long-term ripple effects for the American economy from a strategic perspective.



Xuan Su
The dispute will get resolved when US voters start to elect officials who are genuinely interested in actually resolving the disputes, instead of either keeping it ongoing as a political talking point for their own political benefits, or using it as a tool to bash China in hope of keeping China down.
Right now, the US voters are, let me put it bluntly, too dumb to realize the “dispute” has little to do with what China is doing, but everything to do with what US politicians are trying to get out of it.
There are definitely ways to resolve the disputes that can be tolerable to both sides. But, US is definitely not looking to go down those ways right now.



Dan Pedersen, BS Engineering, MBA/MIS, 30 years international business and many mega projects
工程学学士,MBA/MIS, 30年国际商务和大型项目经验
China has used up all its goodwill. The consequences of its past bad behavior are now being realized. The trade war has widespread support in the US and EU. When trump leaves, it will likely formally include the EU. It will end when China demonstrates that it is ceasing its predatory practices by complying with Trumps demands.
Please remember, Trump is only asking China to comply with agreements that every other country in the world already comply with.



Lance Chambers, Read a lot...
It will come to an end when Trump leaves office because, level heads will be back in control and this insanity will stop. Even the GOP with a sensible set of peole and a GOP president will be better than Trump .



Jamie Cawley, LIved in China 2012-2018, now Hong Kong
When Trump sees the best political advantage in taking the concessions that China was offering to Mnuchin, and have given to every other country since, before he started it.



Carmen Lyu, Business Manager at JumoreGlobal.com (2010-present)
After the two countries agreed to pause the trade war for 90 days, U.S. stocks rose, S&P 500-stock index climbed 1.1 percent, notching its fifth gain in the last six trading sessions. Major Asian and European equity markets also posted solid increases.
How will it influence USA?
Almost 75 percent of chief financial officers say U.S. trade policy will have a negative impact on their business over the next six months, according to the latest CNBC Global CFO Council survey.


As a citizen, they can feel most about how daily life is changed by the Trade War.
We all know that U.S. and China have announced to impose extra tariff on each other’s goods, including some fundamental good stuff such as U.S. soybean,corn, sorghum, pork… and China’s steel, aluminum…
According to the latest news, China Has Halted Its US Soybean Orders Due to Trade Tensions




The result is clear, citizens have to pay for more for the same goods than ever before. If a slight price lift of food stuff is ok, what about cars and other high value products? In the long-run, it would exert more pressure to normal low to middle class families.
What’s more, the gloomy U.S. auto, technology, farming industry will increase the unemployment , for example the ZTE ban and Huawei ban make them lose the Chinese market, meanwhile, it would hurt U.S. too.



Reference: US Consumers are the Biggest Victim of Trump’s China Tariffs
There are enough opponents in the US.
Aim at ‘Made in China’ 2025 plan, Trump’s trade war is too confident that may ignore the benefits of Americans.
In the article of US Consumers are the Biggest Victim of Trump’s China Tariffs, different US industries got hurt once the trade war began.




Technology Industry
No matter how manufacturers of smartphones, televisions, or computers proudly boast their products are “Designed in California”, all count to a large extent on China’s technology and manufacturing sectors. Trump’s new campaign of economic sanctions on China creates a headache for US companies reliant on Chinese circuit boards, chips, servers and possibly their customers, too.



The impacts could abound beyond hardware companies. Open Compute Project is originally created by internet companies like Facebook, Google, and Microsoft in order to lower the prices of servers and other data center equipment. But now its function is weakened by the new China tariffs. Silicon Valley lobbying group The Internet Association stated the knock-on effects like higher product prices and job losses are their topmost worries and there is going to be a large number of lobbying recently as each sector does not want to be caught up in the thing.


Farming Industry
U.S. agricultural exports to China could generate almost 20 billion U.S. dollars annually for American farmers. In terms of soybean export, China buys almost 2/3 of all exported U.S. soybeans and is by far the leading destination for US. If China follows through on the plan to impose a 25% tariff on soybean and other agriculture, it would ultimately the farming industry, the growing panic of U.S farmers is reasonable. Group against to U.S. tariffs is staged in the states of Lowa, Ohio, Indiana, where farmers are keeping watchful eye on the issue. What they need is stable income but many of them claimed these tariffs will hurt them a lot.



Auto Industry
Economists maintained that most auto companies would ultimately pass on any higher import costs to consumers in the form of higher prices. The tariff act that imposes a 25 percent tariff on steel and 10 percent on aluminum will not affect the related industries immediately as feared, but in the end, consumers will bear the consequence in 2019, as per Dan Ikenson, director of trade policy studies at the Cato Institute. It takes time for the higher cost of raw materials to flow through the supply chain. Most U.S. manufacturers have already produced a predefined number of products waiting in warehouses to be sold, and they are normally insulated by yearlong contracts that are pricing out.



Once the costs accumulate until the end of the supply chain, prices for luxury consumer items like autos and appliances could start going up. The rising price of cars not only hinders American auto manufacturers’ capability to expand global market, but largely hampers U.S. citizens’ purchasing power.