为什么贸易战对中国人造成那么大伤害,以至于他们都买不起车了? [美国媒体]


Why is the trade war hurting many Chinese so much that they cannot even buy cars any more?


BEIJING (Reuters) - China’s car sales fell the most in nearly seven years in September, stoking concerns the world’s biggest auto market could contract for the first time in decades this year amid cooling economic growth and a biting trade war.


Roger Jiang, lives in China
All the noise in Western media about the current economic woes of China, while quite sensational, is misleading.
These economic woes are self-inflicted and has nothing to do with the trade war. In fact, we have yet to see the impact of the trade war in the economies of both China and the US. China’s exports to the US actually increased because American customers are stockpiling the Chinese goods as much as possible before the tariffs are raised to 25% next year.


Take the car sales in China for example. Chinese government temporarily removed the sales tax for auto in 2016 and then cut the sale tax by half in 2017. In 2018, the sales tax is restored. So this policy that aimed to stimulate car sales in previous years have largely exhausted lots of purchasing power. Hence the recent slow down in auto sales in China.

举中国的汽车销售为例。中国政府在2016年临时废除了销售税,2017年将销售税削减 一半。2018年,销售税恢复。所以过去几年的这些刺激汽车销售的政策已经大体上消耗掉了很多的购买力。所以中国汽车销量最近才有所下降。

Moreover, there was a sharp rally in real estate prices in 2016–17 so many families took on huge mortgages to participate in this real estate boom. Total mortgage outstanding in China doubled in mere three years. The addition of 20 trillion RMB new mortgage means Chinese families need to pay at least extra one trillion RMB in interests every year. That surely puts a huge dent on Chinese consumption, especially discretionary spending like buying a car.
The reuters reporer simply doesnt know what he is talking about. Very typical of many western reporting on China.


Joseph Wang, studied at Ph.D Astronomy UT Austin, Physics MIT
It’s not.
One reason I get annoyed by all of these Western reports is that they simply do not match what I am seeing here on the ground.
Since the end of last year, the government has been worried about China having too much debt, and they’ve made it harder to borrow money. In particular, they’ve cracked down on P2P lending sites. Because it’s harder to get credit, this has caused auto sales to plummet.
This started before the trade war, and will go on after the trade war.
But this isn’t a big deal, since auto’s are considered a luxury item. Most people don’t have cars and because you have good public transportation, they don’t have much interest in buying cars.


Al Allington, lived in Cedar Springs, MI
You have fallen victim to the ridiculous propaganda pushed by US politicians and news outlets.
Traditionally most Chinese didn’t buy cars.. they cost s lot, a garage can cost $50,000 and I don’t see many gas stations where I live part time. Most Chinese are happy with a small electric scooter which is efficient and inexpensive.
China now has about 300 million licenses drivers but getting a license is expensive and time consuming. One gets a provisional license and for the first 12 months must drive with an experienced driver (3 years) in the car.
NITE: The average income is just $6000/yr in China VS $59,990 in the USA so we can’t expect all of them to buy a new Buick (biggest selling American car but made in Shanghai).
China freeway.


Jamie Cawley, LIved in China 2012-2018, now Hong Kong
In 2017 China bought 25.8 million cars. The US bought 20.9 million.
For anyone interested, I did an analysis at Uni in Shanghai of this market (actually my students did the work). The Chinese car market is suffering from the dramatic rise in second hand car availability, due to sales of new cars rising so fast a few years ago.


David Annett
I found the second hand car market really immature (back in 2013). I brought a new BYD F0 and was the only person in my company to own a Chinese car spending less than half the amount the others did. I wanted transport, they wanted a status symbol. I assumed that was why the second hand market was so dead. Maybe the Chinese car ownership culture is maturing to see a car as a tool not a trophy?
As for ability for purchasing I think that is more driven by government rules in different cities than by money.


Leo Kinnaman
What you wrote is very true. All the Chinese I knew habitually bought brand new cars like 5–10 years ago. This was partly because the market for 2nd-hand car was seen as unreliable. You could end up paying money for a stolen vehicle or a car with huge hidden problems. The feeling of insecurity is also what drove people to buying apartments instead of renting. But I heard that nowadays the 2nd-hand car market is much better regulated. And buying a 5-year old car is most often a good deal as car prices fall very steep for the first few years.