十年后中美会形成怎样的军事平衡？（上） [美国媒体]

What will the military balance between China and the U.S. look like in ten years?

十年后中美会形成怎样的军事平衡？（上）



James Harbaugh, Volunteer Garbageman
For the Empire play book, you don’t need to go back more than a couple of decades ago. We could go over the numbers of equivalent arsenals and the US will outpace China in all categories save troop numbers. That’s not a great comparison because China isn’t trying to police the globe and spends a lot of efforts trying to tame non Han Chinese in it’s boarders and some strategic mines across Africa and other parts of the world. The best course of actions come from the Art of War. The Soviets blew up their economy by putting most of their money into outpacing the US while letting their economy lag (I have an old text book with a MiG flying over an ox cart). If China tries for military dominance, it will blowout it’s budget just the same. Luckily it’s spent much more on economic investment with long term returns for output that could simulate a massive militarization later. Granted, the US is putting pressure on them, so they’ll need a blue water navy for their coast, but just enough for defense.

在对等的武器数量上，美国在所有领域都超过中国，除了军队数量。这不是一个很好的比较，因为中国并不想成为世界警察，中国花很多精力来驯服边境的非汉人，以及非洲和世界其他地方的一些战略性矿产。最好的战略来自孙子兵法。苏联人将大部分资金用在超越美国上，导致自己经济落后，最终解体。如果中国试图形成军事主宰，下场会和苏联一样。幸运的是中国将更多的钱花在经济投资上，产生长期的回报，然后再来军事化也不迟。当然，美国在向中国施加压力，所以中国需要建立一支蓝水海军保护海岸，只是用于自卫。



Just like the Cold War, direct confrontation is a waste of time. Most of the hot proxy wars just proved that investment would have been more profitable long term rather than bombing (Germany, Japan, and even Vietnam went capitalist like China… NK is a dud). So rather than throwing away money away on toys, war will be fought with hearts and minds through investment. Once China can secure the middle east with Russia and joint projects, they can develop them like the Marshal Plan, creating allies and chipping away at the petro dollar. Asia and Africa will be in their control and should the EU fail to seize power from the Nations, Russia and China could fund a proxy war to push out banker control and gain new trading partners.

就像冷战一样，直接的冲突是浪费时间。大部分的代理人热战表明了长期来看投资会比轰炸带来更多的好处（德国，日本，甚至越南都像中国那样变得资本主义。朝鲜是没用的）。所以与其扔炸弹浪费钱，还不如通过投资来赢取战争。一旦中国和俄罗斯联手稳定中东，建立合资项目，他们就可以像马歇尔计划那样发展中东，建立盟友，渐渐侵蚀石油美元。亚洲和非洲将被他们控制。如果欧盟无法从银行家精英那里没收权力，那么中俄可以资助一场代理人战争推翻银行家控制，从而获取新的贸易伙伴。



Hidayat, former CEO
In 10 years, China would have reached her goal of securing full security against US threat in the first and second island chain containment.

10年后，中国将实现自己的目标，打破美国对第一和第二岛链的封锁。