为什么西方不应该低估中俄军事关系 [美国媒体]


Why the West Should Not Underestimate China-Russia Military Ties


Conventional wisdom among Western policymakers and analysts holds that burgeoning China-Russia military ties are a shallow partnership of convenience, primarily fueled by shortsighted U.S. policies, yet bound to be undermined by diverging national interests and ongoing mutual distrust. As then-U.S. Defense Secretary James Mattis noted during a press conference in September: "I see little in the long term that aligns Russia and China."


Notably, China and Russia are not committed to collective defense. The two nations do not have a formal security pact that commits them to defend one another in the event of a military conflict and bilateral military agreements between China and Russia do not contain a casus foederis clause obligating one side to come to the defense of the other. Indeed, both sides continue to see one another as an improbable, yet nonetheless real military threat. For example, Russia has repeatedly expressed concern over China's large arsenal of conventional and nuclear-tipped land-based intermediate range cruise and ballistic missiles, while China is eying with suspicion the re-strengthening of the Russian Navy's Pacific Fleet.


However, a closer examination reveals that China and Russia could indeed incrementally forge a stronger military strategic partnership.


While in a previous analysis I noted that the Chinese and Russian militaries are not in the process of achieving NATO-like interoperability any time soon, China's participation in the Vostok (Eastern) 2018 exercise has yielded tangible practical benefits for the PLA beyond political symbolism. For example, the military exercise provided valuable insights for the PLA for deploying brigade-sized forces that integrate air and ground elements, along with special operations forces, abroad. Especially in the area of expeditionary logistics the exercise offered a useful practical experience to the PLA.

虽然我在之前的分析中指出,中国和俄罗斯军队短期内无法达到类似北约的协同能力,但中国参与“东方2018” 演习,除了政治象征意义外,还为解放军带来了实实在在的利益。例如,这次军事演习为中国人民解放军在海外部署集空军、陆军和特种作战部队于一体的旅级部队提供了宝贵的经验。特别是在远征军后勤方面,这次演习为中国人民解放军提供了有益的实践经验。

Notably, Sino-Russian military exercises for the past decade have been conducted in the Russian language using joint command codes of the Russian command system. This is partially the result of a large number of PLA officers studying at Russian military academic institutions with potentially wide-reaching consequences. "Together with narrowly specialized technical knowledge, the PLA's officers absorb the knowledge of Russian military traditions, strategies, and tactics, which is likely to exert a significant impact on China's military build-up and army organization and make the two countries' overall thinking about modern threats and warfare more compatible," Alexander Korolev emphasized in an April 2018 journal article in Asian Security.


China and Russia also continue to deepen cooperation in the military-technical field. Following a fallout over Chinese unlicensed reverse engineering practices in 2006 and 2007, military-technical cooperation has gradually increased over the years with China retaining the status of a "special" or "privileged partner." The largest bilateral defense programs pertain to air defense systems and aircraft engines, with China no longer seen as merely an export market by Russia, but a genuine defense industry partner. Russian and Chinese officials have repeatedly stressed that military-technical cooperation constitutes the backbone of the China-Russia strategic partnership.


In the decade ahead, we should not only expect to see an increase in the size and scope of Sino-Russian military exercises, but also anticipate increased cooperation at the military technical level between the two countries. The recent deliveries of Su-35s and S-400 air defense systems alone will necessitate military personnel exchanges and joint trainings, as well as the sharing of operational experiences between the countries' militaries. Closer Sino-Russian military ties should nonetheless not be confounded with a genuine military alliance. China historically has eschewed any type of formal alliance and will likely continue to do so. At the same time, dismissing burgeoning Sino-Russian military ties due to divergent Chinese and Russian national interests and a lack of NATO-type force interoperability risks glossing over the already deepening level of military cooperation between the two countries.


I reckon this'll be quite an interesting topic to look into in the upcoming years. Nadège Rolland's article: A China–Russia Condominium over Eurasia, is another well written article which I would recommend you take a look. A quick excerpt is as follows:
If the analysis of Chinese Russia experts is any indication, China and Russia may be able to transform Eurasia into a joint playground instead of a battlefield. The Chinese leadership is well aware of the possibility that a sensitive and insecure Russia could overreact to China’s rising influence in what Moscow regards as its own sphere of influence. In order to preclude conflict, Beijing’s inclination is therefore to play the cooperative card, persuading the Kremlin that China’s thrust into Eurasia actually supports Russia’s goals, focusing on common political, economic and security interests, and letting Moscow claim the role of ‘Greater Eurasia’ leader if it pleases.
As times goes on, problems might emerge in the Sino-Russian relationship. Russia may eventually realise that China poses a profound threat to its interests and ambitions and decide to get serious about competition. But it took the United States nearly a quarter of a century to come to a similar conclusion. Over the medium term, a Sino-Russian condominium over Eurasia will probably continue to take shape.
Honestly, It'll be difficult to speculate on far how this cooperation would push through in the upcoming decades. While the Chinese leadership will continue to push for a low-friction path by accommodating Russia's needs in Central Asia, it'll definitely be difficult to assuage these fears of losing influence considering the vast economic disparity. On the other hand, they do currently share an overarching goal which is the increased economic connectivity of Eurasia as evident with Russia's Greater Eurasian Partnership (GEP) proposal and China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

我想这是一个非常有趣的话题,可以在未来几年研究。Nadège Rolland的文章:中俄共同统治的欧亚大陆,是另一篇写得很好的文章,我建议你看看。快速摘录如下:

If the West is worried about a Sino-Russian alliance, they should try to support one against the other. Basic diplomacy dating back since the times of Sun-Tse. China is the only credible threat and rival to Team West as a whole. Russia is just a paper tiger with limited resources. But the West is antagonizing and sanctioning Russia as hard as ever. So what did you expect? Under current circumstances, Russia has no other option but to align itself with China, even if that means ceding its influence over central Asia. If the West is serious about containing China's growing influence, they should give a breathing space for Russia.

如果西方担心中俄联盟,那他们应该努力支持其中一方对抗另一方。这是基本的外交手段,可以追溯到孙子时代。中国是整个西方阵营唯一确凿的威胁和对手。俄罗斯只是资源有限的纸老虎。但西方仍在一如既往地对抗和制裁俄罗斯。那你还能期待什么呢? 在当前形势下,俄罗斯别无选择,只能与中国结盟,即使这意味着放弃对中亚的影响力。如果西方真的想遏制中国日益增长的影响力,他们应该给俄罗斯一个喘息的空间。

I don’t how possible if it’s for Russia to move away from China, they’re the only expanding natural gas market they have access to, and Russia is very reliant on their natural gas revenue.


Russia will play the game they always have post-1969 exchange of fire with China. They don't and will never trust each other beyond the focus of providing wiggle room to operate under the current situation with the US then add the fact China is feeling their power. This power has no allegiance to Russia. In fact, the Russian natural resources, which China needs, is obvious and compelling for China and Russia knows it. There are many Chinese nationals already in the Siberian region, mostly just over the border. Not by chance btw.
Russia is declining as a power and both know it, while China is rising. China doesn't need Russia beyond the captive market of energy which Russia is frankly forced to sell. i.e. Russia needs to sell more than China needs to buy.
Regardless, this will not end well for Russia. You could see a collapse thus why Putin is playing hard now. Simply, demographics is dominating Russia right now.
Breathing space only delays what will continue to be a once proud nation slowly disappearing.


Which is exactly what the Chinese want. They're not stupid enough to think that Russia can be forced into bad agreements in the long term. That they can buy long term agreements at all makes them happy enough because Russia isn't in a position to credibly threaten China even with economically favorable agreements.


Yeah I agree that if anything China is willing to make some concessions to Russia for the sake of good relations. The power disparity at the moment is hugely in favor of china anyway and giving up some leeway is not going to change that in the slightest.


Not really. The Chinese destroy the environment of those zones, take everything they can and then some Moscow businessmen and politicians take some money home, but the main benefit goes to China, and all the harm to the people close to those places (Siberia, etc).


Each country has a choice in foreign policy, only "the west" is not a country - Russia is