中国的首要问题不是贸易战:而是国内的价格泡沫期;日本因此经济衰退三十年,中国则可能受损更持久 [美国媒体]




China’s top long-term problem isn’t the trade war that dominates the social media recently. It’s a home bubble—the soaring home prices that makes landlords rich while it shatters young people’s dreams of forming a family.


Average prices of new homes in 70 Chinese cities climbed by 9.7% on an annual basis in December of 2018 up from a 9.3% in the previous month according to


How? By creating scores of “ghost cities” -- cities filled with buildings with vacant apartments. “The mismatch between the cost of new homes and the content of the typical Chinese wallet is complete” writes Ruchir Sharma in BREAKOUT NATIONS: The Pursuit of the Next Economic Miracles.“ Developers are building “ghost cities—“ vast tracts of apartment high—rises and malls that remain largely vacant because the Chinese worker can’t afford them.”

如何做到的呢?通过制造大量“鬼城”——指到处都是空置公寓的城市。鲁奇尔·夏尔马(Ruchir Sharma)在《一炮走红的国家:探寻下一个经济奇迹》一书中如此写道,“新房子的价格与普通中国人的钱包形成了彻底的不协调。开发商在修建“鬼城”——大片高耸的住宅和购物广场大量空置,因为普通的中国劳动者买不起。”


Vacant apartments belong to wealthy landlords who expect to sell them one day at higher prices.


Meanwhile holding apartments off the market fuels a huge housing shortage which pushes the prices for “second-hand” houses ever higher. Shanghai’s Second-Hand House Price Index for example has soared from under 1000 in 2003 to around 4000 in 2017.


That’s bad news for young people looking for a home to shelter a family.


Japan has already faced these problems and it’s counting three lost decades even after it settled its trade disputes with the US. China could count many more.


(译注:失去的十年[日文:失われた10年、英文:The lost decade]指的是一个国家或地区陷入长期的经济不景气的状况持续达10年左右才逐渐转好的情况。)


Central bank aside, the Japanese had the advantage of an honest, relatively manipulation-free market which kept their property bubble from blowing up even further.
I don't know when or how the China property bubble will burst, but when it does the fallout will be felt around the world and if you are a laowai you do not want to be at ground zero when it does.


So I guess the question is if correct (which I honestly doubt to the articles extent): Are there any tools that China has that Japan didn't? I know Japan was in some denial but beyond that, the complexity is beyond my payscale.

因此,我想问题是,如果(文章内容是)正确的(而我对此其实怀疑):中国有哪些日本没有的(经济)工具吗? 我知道日本在某种程度上对此拒不承认,但除此之外,这复杂性已超出了我的薪酬能力范围。

Yes, China has a nearly closed domestic monetary system. I'm not exactly sure how that will play out with the real estate bubble, but my guess is that if CCP works on a slow deflation of the bubble they could pull it off because domestically it would just mean cost of living (because of import prices) keep rising relative to property prices.

是的,中国有一个几乎封闭的国内货币体系。 我不确定这会对房地产泡沫产生什么影响,但我猜测,如果ZG致力于缓慢缩小泡沫,他们可能会成功(解决问题),因为在国内,这只意味着生活成本(因为进口价格)相对于房地产价格在持续上涨。


They will never let the SOEs fail. I would be pleasantly surprised if I'm wrong but I doubt even one of the major SOEs - which let's be honest at this point are basically giant welfare programs for otherwise unemployable pencil pushers - will be allowed to go bankrupt.
If history is any indication the bad debt will be shifted around until the RMB is completely debased and the zombie organizations will be propped up until there is an actual honest-to-god uprising.


Yeh seeing as SOE are worth 8 trillion USD in terms of assets and china economy is worth 12 trillion USD. You do the math on what would happen if they went away.


Never going to happen. 1) They’re too racist to let Indians in 2) The avg Chinese can barely afford to raise 1 child let alone more than 2.


Well there are wealthy people who could have more if they wanted to. I know they’re pretty racists against people with more melanin but it’s just something that they could do. A lot of the us was racist but they let people in over time by just ignoring the border people aren’t as racist now I think proximity to people makes you more understanding and tolerant of them.

Chinese being racist towards Indians has nothing to do with their skin color but with the difference and extreme contrast in culture. Chinese would not like Indians even if they where white (which some are). The same reason is why a majority of South east asians also dont like Indians as much.



Lastly a lot of the property here is unmortgaged. A big reason for property crashes in the past were mass defaults. That might not happen here again see point 2 they have no problem parking the cash and waiting for the market to adjust.


Saying all that it seems impossible that something maybe something we can't even foresee right now won't bring about a crash. At the end of the day an asset priced way out of its value is unsustainable forever.