美国2018第四季度和全年GDP(初步估计) [美国媒体]

根据美国经济分析局发布的“初步”估计,2018年第四季度,美国实际国内生产总值同比增长2.6%(见表1)。第三季度,实际GDP增长了3.4%。

Gross Domestic Product, Fourth Quarter and Annual 2018 (Initial Estimate)

美国2018第四季度和全年GDP(初步估计)

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.6 percent in the fourth quarter of 2018 (table 1), according to the "initial" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 3.4 percent.

根据美国经济分析局发布的“初步”估计,2018年第四季度,美国实际国内生产总值同比增长2.6%(见表1)。第三季度,实际GDP增长了3.4%。



Due to the recent partial government shutdown, this initial report for the fourth quarter and annual GDP for 2018 replaces the release of the "advance" estimate originally scheduled for January 30th and the "second" estimate originally scheduled for February 28th. See the Technical Note for details.

由于近期政府部分关门,这份2018年第四季度和年度GDP的初步报告取代了原定于1月30日发布的“预估”和原定于2月28日发布的“二次”预估。有关详细信息,请参见技术说明。



Current-dollar personal income increased $225.1 billion in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of $190.6 billion in the third quarter. The acceleration in personal income reflected an upturn in farm proprietors’ income and accelerations in personal dividend income and personal interest income. Compensation of employees decelerated.

现价美元个人收入在第四季度增加了2251亿美元,而第三季度增加了1906亿美元。个人收入的增加反映了农场主收入的上升,个人股息收入和个人利息收入的增加。员工薪酬增速放缓。

Disposable personal income increased $218.7 billion, or 5.7 percent, in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of $160.9 billion, or 4.2 percent, in the third quarter.

第四季度个人可支配收入增加2187亿美元,增长5.7%,而第三季度增加1609亿美元,增长4.2%。

Personal saving was $1.06 trillion in the fourth quarter, compared with $996.0 billion in the third quarter. The personal saving rate -- personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income -- was 6.7 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with 6.4 percent in the third quarter.

第四季度,个人储蓄为1.06万亿美元,而第三季度为9960亿美元。第四季度个人储蓄率(个人储蓄占可支配个人收入的百分比)为6.7%,而第三季度为6.4%。



During 2018 (measured from the fourth quarter of 2017 to the fourth quarter of 2018), real GDP increased 3.1 percent, compared with an increase of 2.5 percent during 2017. The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 2.1 percent during 2018, compared with an increase of 1.9 percent during 2017.

2018年(从2017年第四季度到2018年第四季度),实际GDP增长3.1%,相比之下,2017年增长2.5%。与2017年的1.9%相比,2018年的国内采购价格指数增长了2.1%。


genericprofile1
Research and development spending exploded. Intellectual property products also look really strong on top of the PCE strength, this is a pretty good Q4.

研发支出激增。知识产权产品在个人消费支出上看起来也很强大,这是一个相当不错的第四季度。

goodsam2
But 4Q to 4Q it was 3.1%

但第四季度至第四季度为3.1%



HarleyDavidsonFXR2
2.6% growth is nothing to write home about.

2.6%的增长没有什么值得吹的。

GimletOnTheRocks
It's relative, though. The 2.6% is much better than expectation. Just two weeks ago, the Atlanta Fed reduced their Q4 expectation to 1.5%. Others were expecting around 2%, so this is very good news.

不过,这是相对的。2.6%远远好于预期。就在两周前,亚特兰大联邦储备银行将第四季度的预期下调至1.5%。其他人的预期在2%左右,所以这是非常好的消息。

Reynolds-RumHam2020
It will likely be reduced down again or negatively effect Q1 2019 as the bulk of why it’s better than expected is due to increased inventory stockpiles.

它可能会再次下降,或对2019年第一季度产生负面影响,因为它好于预期的主要原因是库存增加。



undertakerwwefan
ELITE MEMBER
That's not the point. The point is they spend far more than they collect in tax. That's not sustainable.

这不是重点。关键是他们的支出远远超过了税收。这是不可持续的。

Get Ya Wig Split
FULL MEMBER
Yeah, we are doomed...The Chinese economy is growing more than twice as fast as America’s. You can’t grow the economy if you don’t have enough people. The birthrate in America is not high enough to compete with other countries like China etc. The US has 330 million people. China has 1.4 billion people. It’s true that immigration is America’s key challenge and we need more. We need at least 500 million people in the US in order to compete with china. Their manufacturing base is vastly bigger than ours, we need more people!!!
The trade deal between China and US has to be perfect. my expectations are so damn high this shit better hit!!!

是的,我们注定要完蛋…中国经济的增长速度是美国的两倍多。如果没有足够的人口,经济就无法增长。美国的出生率不够高,无法与中国等其他国家竞争。美国有3.3亿人口。中国有14亿人口。的确,移民是美国面临的主要挑战,我们需要更多移民。为了与中国竞争,我们至少需要5亿美国人。他们的生产基地比我们的大得多,我们需要更多的人!!
中美之间的贸易协定必须是完美的。我的期望如此之高,这该死的东西最好签署!!

F-22Raptor
SENIOR MEMBER
I'd say it's exactly the point. For years I have listened to how its just a matter of time until the Chinese economy surpasses the US, and how it will become this unstoppable behemoth. Well reality is saying otherwise. The Chinese economy isn't catching up to the US anymore, and its been that way for a number of years now.

我想说这正是关键所在。多年来,我一直听到别人说,中国经济超越美国只是一个时间问题,它将成为一个不可阻挡的庞然大物。但事实并非如此。中国经济已不再赶上美国了,多年来一直如此。



Mista
FULL MEMBER
You have to look at percentage rates as well. One with constantly higher percentage growth will eventually catch up, because maths.
You are right that China probably hasn't been outpacing the US in absolute terms for the past few years but that can be misleading.
On percentage terms they are gaining on the US.
For example:
China $12T
US $20T
China is 60% of the US.
Even if China doesn't outpace the US in absolute terms, and both add $1T for the next 20 years:
China $32T
US $40T
China would be 80% of the US.

你也要看百分比。一个增长率不断提高的国家最终将迎头赶上,因为数学。
你说得对,中国在过去几年的绝对增速可能还没有超过美国,但这可能具有误导性。
按百分比计算,它们正在赶上美国。
例如:
中国12万亿美元
美国20万亿美元
中国是美国的60%。
即使中国在绝对值上没有超过美国,然后双方在未来20年后都增加20万亿美元。
中国32万亿
美国40万亿
中国将是美国的80%

undertakerwwefan
ELITE MEMBER
Apples and oranges. China economy ain't measured in USD. In terms of PPP China is way bigger than the US. Let me ask you. How many destroyers is the US building? How many destroyers is China building?

这截然不同。中国经济不是用美元来衡量的。就购买力平价而言,中国比美国大得多。我来问问你,美国有多少艘驱逐舰?中国正在建造多少艘驱逐舰?



F-22Raptor
SENIOR MEMBER
Since 2013 the US has added around 4.3 trillion to its economy. Over the same period, China has added around 3.5 trillion. The US economy has outpaced China's over the last 6 years.
China has lost ground to the US over the last 6 years. That's a fact. And for years on PDF I've heard how China will be 2-3 times the size of the US by mid century. Its not happening. Not even close.
The US Navy has around 10 destroyers under construction or near commission, and another 5 under contract. That's not including further purchases in the years coming, including the purchase of the Large Surface Combatant to replace the Ticons. First purchase is expected in 2023. The Navy is churning out destroyers.

自2013年以来,美国经济增长了4.3万亿美元。同期,中国新增约3.5万亿。过去6年,美国经济增速超过了中国。
在过去6年里,中国输给了美国。这是一个事实。多年来,我一直听说,到本世纪中叶,中国的规模将是美国的2-3倍。这不会发生,甚至不会接近。
美国海军大约有10艘驱逐舰在建或即将服役,另有5艘正在合同中。这还不包括未来几年的进一步购买,包括购买大型水面战斗舰来取代提康德罗加。第一次购买预计在2023年。海军正在大量生产驱逐舰。



Get Ya Wig Split
FULL MEMBER
If Donald Trump can balance out the trade deficit with China and Japan, this will give US the $ for fix most of our trouble. I don't think people realize the elimination of $500B trade deficit will add 1.5% + to annual GDP growth.

如果唐纳德•特朗普能够平衡与中国和日本的贸易逆差,这将为我们解决大部分问题提供资金。我认为人们没有意识到5000亿美元贸易赤字的消除将使GDP年增长率增加1.5%。

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