为何中俄不采取联盟,以此打破美国军事优势? [美国媒体]


Why doesRussia not ally with China to break U.S. military superiority?


James Bowen, works at University of Kansas
The short answer is that, from the Russian perspective, China isa bigger threat than the U.S. is. China has a land border with Russia, has atleast five times the industrial output that the U.S. has, and has a hugeeconomy and 1.4 billion people with a voracious appetite for raw materials.Meanwhile, Russia has a huge landmasss with the largest reserves of naturalresources on Earth, but the breakup of the Soviet Union took away much of itsreserves of manpower to sustain the army needed to defend that landmass. Chinahistorically claims portions of Siberia, including all the areas where theTrans-Siberian Railroad traverses and the port of Vladivostok. The U.S., on theother hand, has no land border with Russia and no vital conflicts of interest.So long as the U.S. does not successfully pry Ukraine away from the Russiansphere (which is unlikely to happen anytime soon), U.S. disagreements withRussia are more of an annoyance than anything else. A resource-hungry nation of1.4 billion people with high industrial output and situated right next door tothe world’s great but thinly-populated storehouse of natural resources is muchmore menacing in the long term, however.



Russia making an alliance with China would bear some resemblanceto the Molotov-Ribbentrop non-aggression pact of 1939 where the Soviet Unionmade a pact with the power who was the greatest threat to them because theytemporarily agreed on something.


Oleg Polyakov, Quantitative Researcher in Finance at Hedge Funds
The thing that people don’t seem to understand is that Chinaneeds Russia as an ally much more than Russia needs China asan ally.


Look at it from China’s perspective.


I would even go as far as to argue that China absolutelyneeds Russia as an ally if it ever wants to even have a fightingchance of building its desired world order. Think of the contrary, if Russiawas positioned as a power that is hostile to China. This is China’s worstnightmare! All those countries I mentioned above would also be against China,and China would find itself surrounded by hostile powers from all sides. Atthat point, were it to happen, China could kiss its efforts to build a newworld order goodbye.


It order to win Russia over as its ally China did the rightthing and carefully studied the things that truly concern Russia. Turns out,there aren’t too many. Primarily, Russia does not wish to be a) threatened andb) humiliated. So what does China do? The new Chinese leader alwayspicks Russia as the first country he visits. China sends its top militarycommand to Moscow who says that China will defend Russia if it is attacked. Chinesemedia is portraying Russia and Putin as a true friend, encouraging students,tourists and businesses to go there, and millions do. It supports Russia at theU.N. and refuses to impose sanctions. China is investing billions of dollarsinto developing the Far East.



So when you see Xi Jinping and Putin hanging out eating caviarand drinking vodka you need to realize that it is Xi who is courting Putin, andnot the other way around.


Mark Dallas, Professor,Political Science & Asian Studies,UnionCollege NY
Short answer is:


Russia and China do not trust each other on major issues like:their territorial boundaries, who should be the unofficial “power” in CentralAsia, among others. They have created the SCO, so read up on that to see howthey are cooperating. But, it is a relatively shallow organization (right now,at least).


2. There is no friends for life between countries especially formain powers. China might betray Russia if the day comes and US becomes nothingto concern about.

2. 国与国之间从来不存在真正的友谊,尤其对世界大国而言。也许有一天,当美国变得对中国毫无威胁之时,中国就会卸磨杀熊了。

3. Starting up a war just for showing your strength by takingdown the biggest enemy is irrational to the extreme. The harm this will bringabout would be absurd, just like in World War 2, and nobody would want that tohappen regardless as this always means loss of life and fall of economy,especially when killing people is so easy in this era with all that kind ofautonomous weapons available to men.

3. 为了展现自己力量而向自己最大的敌人盲目发动战争,这真是荒谬到了极点。就像第二次世界大战一样,战争带给双方的伤害简直是太让人无语了。人们根本就不希望发生战争,因为它总会导致生灵涂炭、经济崩塌,更何况,现在人类发明的自动武器能够轻易的杀死大量人员。

Joel Phelan, Computer Geek. Former Active Duty Marine (during the90s)
They don’t trust one another, have often conflicting interests,and China, arguably, would much rather see the USA ascendant than Russia, andvice versa. There’s also the fact that - even together, they couldn’t do itwithout a bloody war that would leave both countries’ infrastructure andmilitaries largely destroyed, even if they were successful. Then success ismuch less likely than failure. The combined external military projectionability of both Russia and China amounts to much less than 1/2 of what the USAcan project, and when combined with NATO, less than 1/5 of the projected powerof the USA and its allies. In pure man-power, China has 2.3 million active dutyforces and about half a million reserves in the PLA. ALL of the “theatrecommands” for the PLA are INSIDE China. with the North, East, andSouth commands being responsible for the S. China Sea and East. China Sea. Thissays something about their focus. US “theatre commands” are globally regional.Futher, China’s equipment is still very outdated for the most part, thoughtheir is a massive push to update. Currently approximately 1/5 of theirfighters, for example, are “modern” meaning they’re 3rd or 4th generation.



Further, their strategic interests aren’t aligned. Russia caresabout resources in Siberia and about influence in Europe. China’s focus isextending its influence in SE asia and economically, and is concerned withresources in the S. China Sea. It doesn’t particularly care about Europe EXCEPTthat it wants Europe to be a stable market for its products. Something Russianaggression in Eastern Europe could upset to a degree. Countries do things fortheir own interests.


Glenn Lee, works at Northern California
Since the Ching dynasty China has lost much territory. Almostall of this lost territory is lost to Russia. After WWll, the USSR strippedManchuria of it’s industrial plants, railroad stocks and shipped them to theUSSR. Chang and Stalin agreed not to help Mao during the civil war in exchangefor certain privileges in China and Mongolia independence. China and USSR hadnumerous border conflicts, etc, etc, and you expect the Chinese to treat Russialike a brother? The Chinese view Russia as an adversary and see the US as aunfriendly trader.


Russia has a remarkably small air force and navy by historicalstandards - and by the standard of its huge size. PRC has designed its armedforces NOT to break the bank - it is organized to fight “one nation at a time,near to China, under (modern warfare) conditions, before the superpower caneffectively intervene.” It does NOT field a force able to fight the“superpower” - because it costs too much.

Wes Frank, Free-lance Writer
I would say it is primarily because this is not the 18th Centuryand allying with someone to “break military superiority” is not a viableforeign policy option. The United States, Russa, and China are all nuclearpowers and they do not have the option of measuring the length of their armoredcolumns to decide who’s the big bull in the barn anymore.


In any event, China and Russia don’t have the same strategicgoals. Russia wants to bully smaller nations in Europe and has little tradewith the United States. China wants to bulky smaller nations in East Asia andthe United States is China’s largest trading partner.


They aren’t on the same page. More to the point, their interestsaren’t in the same hemisphere.


None of the four largest nuclear powers are ever going to form apeacetime military alliance. That endangers their national survival. They arenot going risk the destruction of their countries based on the whim of someforeign government.

Euan Austin, Student of China
The US is a declining (albeit still the greatest) superpowerwhilst China is on the rise.


Both China and Russia complement each other perfectly in thecontext of 21st century geopolitics, China providing massive economic powerwhilst Russia provides the military power and regional influence the Chinesecurrently lack.


Why would Russia not want to isolate the US, who has onlyantagonised Russia since the 1950s, through a possible geopolitical alliancebetween China-Russia-EU?

Robin Daverman, World traveler
Why does Russia not ally with China to break US militarysuperiority?


America has strongest military by far and uses it to get lots ofinfluence all over the world, even infringing Russian and Chinese interests. Normallyif there are three people and one is much stronger the other two gang up onhim. So why not in world politics?


Some dude has a big stick. In order to maintain his big stick,he has to eat less well, drive a shitty car, go to a sub-par school, and walkon broken sidewalks. And because he uses his big stick too often, half of theglobe hates him so he can’t go to those places for business or vacation. Andyou think Russia and China should band together to build an even bigger stickand live in even shittier lives than the Americans. Why?


From China’s perspective, all these Abrahamic countries are alittle bit crazy in the heads. Usually one gets into a fight if someone stealshis cow, sleeps with his wife, or kills his daddy. The solution is don’t gosteal somebody’s cow, don’t go sleep with somebody’s wife, and don’t killanybody. OK, everybody understands this. But these religious countries - be itthe religion of Christianity, or Islam, or Democracy - basically they startwith “I’m right and you are wrong”, so “I invade you to liberate you” and “Ikill you to set you free.” So they’ll start a fight with people who have neverdone them any harm. Just because “I’m right and you are wrong, so I gotta killyou to prove I’m so right”. Nobody with a normal head would think this way! Onlyin the echo chamber of the Western Media would something so profoundlyillogical not only gets accepted by the otherwise normal people, but thesepeople are willing to pay for it with their money and their lives.

China has never been part of a “wolf pack” to go hunting othercountries. Not ever. The kind that go out as “wolf packs” to hunt othercountries - are frankly not the kind of dudes China wants to be too close with,’cause guys who do that sort of stuff, and benefited from it, sooner or laterthey’ll turn on each other, ’cause that’s the rule of their pack, like fightingfor dominance. And why would China want to “break US military superiority”? Ifthere is no comparison, you don’t know which is better. Let the US keepshooting. Every bullet fired, every bomb dropped, every coup or an attemptedcoup, is a live demo to the other 190 countries on earth on how the U.S. resolvesdifferences between two countries. This is how. That makes China look like amuch safer business partner to have. The new scramble for Africa: howChina became the partner of choice
Post WWII Germany and Japan made all countries run to the US inthe 20th century, and Iraq, Libya, Afghanistan, and Syria made all countriesrun away from the US in the 21st century. It’s that simple.