为何中俄不采取联盟，以此打破美国军事优势？ [美国媒体]

Why doesRussia not ally with China to break U.S. military superiority?

为何中俄不采取联盟，以此打破美国军事优势？




James Bowen, works at University of Kansas
The short answer is that, from the Russian perspective, China isa bigger threat than the U.S. is. China has a land border with Russia, has atleast five times the industrial output that the U.S. has, and has a hugeeconomy and 1.4 billion people with a voracious appetite for raw materials.Meanwhile, Russia has a huge landmasss with the largest reserves of naturalresources on Earth, but the breakup of the Soviet Union took away much of itsreserves of manpower to sustain the army needed to defend that landmass. Chinahistorically claims portions of Siberia, including all the areas where theTrans-Siberian Railroad traverses and the port of Vladivostok. The U.S., on theother hand, has no land border with Russia and no vital conflicts of interest.So long as the U.S. does not successfully pry Ukraine away from the Russiansphere (which is unlikely to happen anytime soon), U.S. disagreements withRussia are more of an annoyance than anything else. A resource-hungry nation of1.4 billion people with high industrial output and situated right next door tothe world’s great but thinly-populated storehouse of natural resources is muchmore menacing in the long term, however.

简单来说，俄罗斯人将中国视作比美国更大的威胁。因为，中国和俄罗斯接壤，中国的工业总产值是美国的五倍，不仅如此，中国拥有强大的经济和高达14亿的人口，他们对于资源的需求实在是太大了。而与此同时，俄罗斯拥有一片广袤的大陆和世界上最大的天然资源储备量。但是，自从前苏联解体后，俄罗斯的军事实力大大削弱，这让她在守护广袤的大陆时，显得有些力不从心。

而在历史上，中国宣称对西伯利亚部分地区拥有主权，包括西伯利亚铁路横跨地区，以及海参崴。反观美国，她并未和俄罗斯接壤，而且也没有重大的利益冲突。只要美国没有把乌克兰从俄罗斯势力范围内撬走（这短时间内不太可能发生），那么美俄之间的分歧，不过就是互相瞧不上眼而已。但是，当一个急需自然资源、拥有14亿人口、极高工业产值的邻居挨着一个领土广袤但人烟稀少的俄罗斯，这才是真正长期的威胁。

Russia making an alliance with China would bear some resemblanceto the Molotov-Ribbentrop non-aggression pact of 1939 where the Soviet Unionmade a pact with the power who was the greatest threat to them because theytemporarily agreed on something.

如果俄罗斯与中国建立联盟，那么这种联盟会和1939年签订的《苏德互不侵犯条约》一样的下场，当时，前苏联之所以和自己最大的敌人签订这个条约，仅仅是因为他们暂时在某些利益上达成一致而已。

Oleg Polyakov, Quantitative Researcher in Finance at Hedge Funds
The thing that people don’t seem to understand is that Chinaneeds Russia as an ally much more than Russia needs China asan ally.

人们似乎对一件事了解的不够多，那就是，中国对于中俄联盟的需求要更大一些。

Look at it from China’s perspective.

让我们从中国的角度来分析一下吧：



I would even go as far as to argue that China absolutelyneeds Russia as an ally if it ever wants to even have a fightingchance of building its desired world order. Think of the contrary, if Russiawas positioned as a power that is hostile to China. This is China’s worstnightmare! All those countries I mentioned above would also be against China,and China would find itself surrounded by hostile powers from all sides. Atthat point, were it to happen, China could kiss its efforts to build a newworld order goodbye.

甚至，我进一步认为，如果中国想要建立起自己渴望的世界秩序，那么中国必须要和俄罗斯建立起联盟。想象一下相反的情况，如果俄罗斯成为了对中国不友好的一只力量。如果这种情况发生，那将成为中国最大的噩梦。所有上述的国家都会选择对抗中国，而中国也会发现，自己完完全全被敌意的国家所包围了。如果上述这种情况真的发生了，那么中国所有的努力都会付之东流，也只能和自己建立国际秩序的希望说拜拜了。

It order to win Russia over as its ally China did the rightthing and carefully studied the things that truly concern Russia. Turns out,there aren’t too many. Primarily, Russia does not wish to be a) threatened andb) humiliated. So what does China do? The new Chinese leader alwayspicks Russia as the first country he visits. China sends its top militarycommand to Moscow who says that China will defend Russia if it is attacked. Chinesemedia is portraying Russia and Putin as a true friend, encouraging students,tourists and businesses to go there, and millions do. It supports Russia at theU.N. and refuses to impose sanctions. China is investing billions of dollarsinto developing the Far East.

中国将俄罗斯拉拢过来是一件非常正确的事情，而且中国总是会认真研究俄罗斯所关切的事情。结果证明，俄罗斯所关切的事情并不是特别多。首先，俄罗斯并不希望遭到威胁和羞辱。所以，中国做了什么呢？

而且，中国还派出最高军事将领前往莫斯科，并向俄罗斯保证，一旦有人进攻俄罗斯，中国便会一同保卫她。中国媒体总是将俄罗斯和普京描绘成为中国真正的朋友，并鼓励学生、游客和商人们前往俄罗斯发展，确实，数以百万计的中国人去了俄罗斯。此外，中国总是在联合国中支持俄罗斯，而且拒绝对俄罗斯执行经济制裁。中国还投入了数十亿美元，以此来发展远东地区的经济。

So when you see Xi Jinping and Putin hanging out eating caviarand drinking vodka you need to realize that it is Xi who is courting Putin, andnot the other way around.

所以，当你们看到中国与普京一同吃鱼子酱喝伏特加，你就应该知道，中国是在拉拢俄罗斯，而不是相反的情况。

Mark Dallas, Professor,Political Science & Asian Studies,UnionCollege NY
Short answer is:

简单来说：

Russia and China do not trust each other on major issues like:their territorial boundaries, who should be the unofficial “power” in CentralAsia, among others. They have created the SCO, so read up on that to see howthey are cooperating. But, it is a relatively shallow organization (right now,at least).

首先，俄罗斯和中国在一些重要事件上，并不是十分的互信，比如领土问题和中亚的领导权问题。他们已经共同成立了上合组织，所以让我们拭目以待，看看他们如何实现合作的吧。不过，这个组织的根基仍然有些不稳（至少目前看来是这样）。



2. There is no friends for life between countries especially formain powers. China might betray Russia if the day comes and US becomes nothingto concern about.

2. 国与国之间从来不存在真正的友谊，尤其对世界大国而言。也许有一天，当美国变得对中国毫无威胁之时，中国就会卸磨杀熊了。

3. Starting up a war just for showing your strength by takingdown the biggest enemy is irrational to the extreme. The harm this will bringabout would be absurd, just like in World War 2, and nobody would want that tohappen regardless as this always means loss of life and fall of economy,especially when killing people is so easy in this era with all that kind ofautonomous weapons available to men.

3. 为了展现自己力量而向自己最大的敌人盲目发动战争，这真是荒谬到了极点。就像第二次世界大战一样，战争带给双方的伤害简直是太让人无语了。人们根本就不希望发生战争，因为它总会导致生灵涂炭、经济崩塌，更何况，现在人类发明的自动武器能够轻易的杀死大量人员。

Joel Phelan, Computer Geek. Former Active Duty Marine (during the90s)
They don’t trust one another, have often conflicting interests,and China, arguably, would much rather see the USA ascendant than Russia, andvice versa. There’s also the fact that - even together, they couldn’t do itwithout a bloody war that would leave both countries’ infrastructure andmilitaries largely destroyed, even if they were successful. Then success ismuch less likely than failure. The combined external military projectionability of both Russia and China amounts to much less than 1/2 of what the USAcan project, and when combined with NATO, less than 1/5 of the projected powerof the USA and its allies. In pure man-power, China has 2.3 million active dutyforces and about half a million reserves in the PLA. ALL of the “theatrecommands” for the PLA are INSIDE China. with the North, East, andSouth commands being responsible for the S. China Sea and East. China Sea. Thissays something about their focus. US “theatre commands” are globally regional.Futher, China’s equipment is still very outdated for the most part, thoughtheir is a massive push to update. Currently approximately 1/5 of theirfighters, for example, are “modern” meaning they’re 3rd or 4th generation.

答案很简单，中俄之间并不互信，而且他们之间还存在利益冲突。相比之下，中国更愿意看到美国的力量比俄罗斯更加强大，反过来，这对俄罗斯也是一样的。如果发生冲突，即使一方获得了胜利，也将会是惨胜，这和失败别无二样。俄罗斯和中国的海外军事投放能力加起来也不及美国一家的二分之一，如果算上北约的海外军事投放能力，那么中俄可能连他们的五分之一也达不到。从部队数量上来说，中国拥有一支230万人的现役部队，而且还有50万的预备部队。

不过，中国人民解放军的所有指挥部都位于中国境内。其中，中国北部军区、东部军区与南部军区的指挥部分别要掌管中国南海和东海区域。这就表明了这些军区所关注负责的区域。而美国的“指挥部”是在全球范围内部署的。此外，即便中国在进行大力更新装备，但中国的军事武器仍有很大部分是老旧的。目前，中国作战飞机中只有大概1/5是“现代化”的，也就是我们常说的第三代或第四代战机。

Further, their strategic interests aren’t aligned. Russia caresabout resources in Siberia and about influence in Europe. China’s focus isextending its influence in SE asia and economically, and is concerned withresources in the S. China Sea. It doesn’t particularly care about Europe EXCEPTthat it wants Europe to be a stable market for its products. Something Russianaggression in Eastern Europe could upset to a degree. Countries do things fortheir own interests.

此外，中俄两国的战略意义不一致。俄罗斯更关心西伯利亚的资源和对欧洲国家的影响。而中国则更侧重将经济影响力延伸至东南亚国家，并且担心中国南海的资源问题。因此，中国对欧洲并不是特别上心，当然，将欧洲打造成出口市场这一点除外。不过，俄罗斯在东欧的进攻可能在某种程度上给中国带来点烦恼。要记住，每个国家都是为了自身的利益。

Glenn Lee, works at Northern California
Since the Ching dynasty China has lost much territory. Almostall of this lost territory is lost to Russia. After WWll, the USSR strippedManchuria of it’s industrial plants, railroad stocks and shipped them to theUSSR. Chang and Stalin agreed not to help Mao during the civil war in exchangefor certain privileges in China and Mongolia independence. China and USSR hadnumerous border conflicts, etc, etc, and you expect the Chinese to treat Russialike a brother? The Chinese view Russia as an adversary and see the US as aunfriendly trader.

清朝时，中国丢掉了很多的领土，而其中大部分都被现在的俄罗斯给占领了。二战结束后，前苏联又夺走了东北地区的工业设施和铁路股份，然后将中国的财富运送到了前苏联。为了阻止毛赢得中国内战，作为条件，蒋介石与斯大林达成一致，将外蒙古从中国分割出去，成为了独立国家。此外，中国和前苏联存在很多的边境冲突问题，在这种情况下，你们还能期待中俄两国能够成为真正的兄弟吗？中国将俄罗斯视为对手，而视美国则为一个不友好的贸易者，仅此而已。



Russia has a remarkably small air force and navy by historicalstandards - and by the standard of its huge size. PRC has designed its armedforces NOT to break the bank - it is organized to fight “one nation at a time,near to China, under (modern warfare) conditions, before the superpower caneffectively intervene.” It does NOT field a force able to fight the“superpower” - because it costs too much.

和前苏联时期的规模相比，俄罗斯现在的空军和海军力量小的让人唏嘘。而中国在建立自己的军队时，不可能将其维持在一个会耗尽国家财富的规模——也就是说，在其他超级大国干预前，中国在现代战争的条件下，一次只能攻击一个靠近中国的国家。而中国并没有维持一支足以和“超级大国”抗衡的军队，因为这代价实在是太大了。
Wes Frank, Free-lance Writer
I would say it is primarily because this is not the 18th Centuryand allying with someone to “break military superiority” is not a viableforeign policy option. The United States, Russa, and China are all nuclearpowers and they do not have the option of measuring the length of their armoredcolumns to decide who’s the big bull in the barn anymore.

首先，现在已经不是18世纪了，而且，通过与别国联盟来“打破军事优势”也并非是一种可行的外交政策了。现在，中美俄都已经是核大国，所以，他们就没有必要去数装甲集群中武器的数量，以此来确定谁的能力更强。

In any event, China and Russia don’t have the same strategicgoals. Russia wants to bully smaller nations in Europe and has little tradewith the United States. China wants to bulky smaller nations in East Asia andthe United States is China’s largest trading partner.

在任何情况下，中国和俄罗斯的战略意图都不可能一样。俄罗斯一直在欺负欧洲的小国，而且和美国的贸易极少。而中国则要欺负东亚地区的小国，但美国却是中国最大的贸易伙伴。

They aren’t on the same page. More to the point, their interestsaren’t in the same hemisphere.

他们之间的意见肯定不会一致。说的更确切一些，中俄之间的利益重心，根本就不在同一个半球上。

None of the four largest nuclear powers are ever going to form apeacetime military alliance. That endangers their national survival. They arenot going risk the destruction of their countries based on the whim of someforeign government.

地球上四个核大国之间，彼此之间不可能会在和平时期建立起军事联盟，因为这会危机国家的生存。他们可不会因为一时兴起而拿国家的和平当赌注。
Euan Austin, Student of China
The US is a declining (albeit still the greatest) superpowerwhilst China is on the rise.

美国正在衰退（目前仍是最强大的国家），而中国正在崛起。

Both China and Russia complement each other perfectly in thecontext of 21st century geopolitics, China providing massive economic powerwhilst Russia provides the military power and regional influence the Chinesecurrently lack.

在21世界地缘政治中，中俄两国能够完美地弥补彼此的不足，其中，中国拥有巨大的经济实力，而俄罗斯则具有强大的军事能力和中国暂时缺乏的区域影响力。



Why would Russia not want to isolate the US, who has onlyantagonised Russia since the 1950s, through a possible geopolitical alliancebetween China-Russia-EU?

美国从20世纪50年代开始就一直敌视俄罗斯，所以，俄罗斯也愿意建立中俄欧政治联盟，来彻底孤立美国。
Robin Daverman, World traveler
Why does Russia not ally with China to break US militarysuperiority?

为何中俄不采取联盟，以此打破美国军事优势？

America has strongest military by far and uses it to get lots ofinfluence all over the world, even infringing Russian and Chinese interests. Normallyif there are three people and one is much stronger the other two gang up onhim. So why not in world politics?

美国拥有世界上最强大的军事力量，并经常依仗其军事力量对全世界施加自己的影响力，甚至，美国经常会侵犯俄罗斯和中国的利益。一般情况下，如果三个人中有一个人的力量过于强大，那么另外两个人就会选择联盟。所以，为什么这不同样适用于世界政治呢？

Some dude has a big stick. In order to maintain his big stick,he has to eat less well, drive a shitty car, go to a sub-par school, and walkon broken sidewalks. And because he uses his big stick too often, half of theglobe hates him so he can’t go to those places for business or vacation. Andyou think Russia and China should band together to build an even bigger stickand live in even shittier lives than the Americans. Why?

某个国家一直在执行所谓的大棒政策。而为了维持自己的这种昂贵的政策，某个国家不得不吃穿住行各个方面都节省，以此来获得足够的经费。由于过度使用这种大棒政策，世界上一半的国家都十分憎恨某个国家，也正因如此，某个国家根本就不能去这些被欺负的国家中做生意，或者度假。而你们居然认为俄罗斯和中国应该联合起来，来执行一个比某个国家更加厉害的大棒政策，然后一起过上比美国都要惨的生活？为什么要这么做呢？

From China’s perspective, all these Abrahamic countries are alittle bit crazy in the heads. Usually one gets into a fight if someone stealshis cow, sleeps with his wife, or kills his daddy. The solution is don’t gosteal somebody’s cow, don’t go sleep with somebody’s wife, and don’t killanybody. OK, everybody understands this. But these religious countries - be itthe religion of Christianity, or Islam, or Democracy - basically they startwith “I’m right and you are wrong”, so “I invade you to liberate you” and “Ikill you to set you free.” So they’ll start a fight with people who have neverdone them any harm. Just because “I’m right and you are wrong, so I gotta killyou to prove I’m so right”. Nobody with a normal head would think this way! Onlyin the echo chamber of the Western Media would something so profoundlyillogical not only gets accepted by the otherwise normal people, but thesepeople are willing to pay for it with their money and their lives.



China has never been part of a “wolf pack” to go hunting othercountries. Not ever. The kind that go out as “wolf packs” to hunt othercountries - are frankly not the kind of dudes China wants to be too close with,’cause guys who do that sort of stuff, and benefited from it, sooner or laterthey’ll turn on each other, ’cause that’s the rule of their pack, like fightingfor dominance. And why would China want to “break US military superiority”? Ifthere is no comparison, you don’t know which is better. Let the US keepshooting. Every bullet fired, every bomb dropped, every coup or an attemptedcoup, is a live demo to the other 190 countries on earth on how the U.S. resolvesdifferences between two countries. This is how. That makes China look like amuch safer business partner to have. The new scramble for Africa: howChina became the partner of choice
Post WWII Germany and Japan made all countries run to the US inthe 20th century, and Iraq, Libya, Afghanistan, and Syria made all countriesrun away from the US in the 21st century. It’s that simple.

中国从来都没有采取“群狼战术”在世界上围猎其他国家。而且以后也不会。采取“群狼战术”在世界上围猎其他国家这种事，从来都不是中国这种国家能够看上眼的方式，因为她知道，那些热衷于采取“群狼战术”并从中受益的国家，迟早会将枪口指向彼此，因为，这就是他们的规则，为了称霸不择手段。为什么中国想要打破“美国的军事优势”？

只要稍微对比下，你就会发现中美两国哪个更好了。就让美国继续在世界上胡作非为吧。美国向其他国家射出的每一发子弹、投下的每一枚炮弹、策划的每一场政权颠覆，都会让世界上其他190个国家实锤美国这个国家的恶魔本质。这也是中美两个国家之间的差距。也正因如此，中国看起来是一个更加安全可靠的商业伙伴。第二次世界大战结束后，美国对德国和日本的援助重建让整个世界都向往美国，而在20世纪，美国对伊拉克、利比亚、阿富汗和叙利亚的入侵行为，让整个世界都鄙视逃离美国，这个道理就是这么简单。