5万亿美元灾难：如果中国关闭南海会怎样？ [美国媒体]

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China has fired off a music video editorials and plenty of other propaganda along with a few volleys from PLA Navy ships in response to the international court ruling on the South China Sea which it denounced as “null and void.” But after threatening to set up an air defense identification zone what might the economic impact be if Beijing went one step further and closed off the entire area inside its so-called “nine-dash line”?

中国已经通过发表一系列音频视频社论，和其他大量伴随着解放军海军万炮齐射画面的宣传，来回应国际法庭关于南海的裁决，这一裁决被中国指责为“非法和无效”。但是在威胁设立南海防空识别区之后，如果北京进一步封锁整个所谓的“九段线”之内的区域，将会对经济有什么样的影响？

Based on a 1947 map by the then Kuomintang government the vaguely defined nine-dash line encompasses around 90 percent of the South China Sea. It spans an area the size of Mexico extending more than one thousand kilometers from China and which encompasses territory claimed by Malaysia the Philippines Taiwan and Vietnam.

基于国民党政府于1947年模糊定义的九段线地图，包含了90%的南中国海。它跨度大约一个墨西哥的面积，延伸到离中国1000公里以外的区域，涵盖了马来西亚、菲律宾、台湾和越南所宣称的领土。


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Fojar38
A) China can't shut down the South China Sea.
B) Even if they could all they would do is strangle their own economy. It would effectively be a self-imposed blockade.

A) 中国没有能力关闭南中国海。
B) 即使他们能这么做，唯一的后果将是勒死他们自己的经济。这实际上是一种自我封锁。

EarthCitizen
That's why the arguments that China is a threat to international trade is completely baseless and most likely propaganda.

这也是为什么说那些关于中国威胁国际贸易的言论，完全是毫无根据，更像是一种宣传。

Fojar38
China's imperialism in the South China Sea is a threat for other reasons.

中国的帝国主义对南海是一种威胁是由于其他原因。

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EarthCitizen
Where is the imperialism? Holding on to historical claims are imperialism? Taiwan is also holding on to the same claims so Taiwan is also imperialism? Biggest imperialism country is still USA. USA is so hypocritical that it asks China to obey the laws and courts that it has never respected before.

帝国主义在哪儿？坚持历史主张就是帝国主义吗？台湾也坚持同样的主张，那么台湾也是帝国主义吗？最大的帝国主义国家依然是美国。美国虚伪的要求中国要服从国际法和国际法庭，但他自己过去却从来不尊重它们。

Fojar38
We aren't talking about the USA we are talking about China. Stop trying to deflect the focus of the discussion.
Any historical claims that China may have had were rendered null and void when they signed onto UNCLOS as an impartial court has just ruled. Hence any territorial claims made by China on its basis constitute illegal land occupation.

我们不是在讨论美国，我们在讨论中国。不要试图转移话题的焦点。
当中国签署《联合国海洋法公约》后，所有中国历史的主张都变成非法和无效的了，正如公正的国际法庭刚刚裁决的那样。今后，任何中国的领土主张，在这个基础上就构成了非法占有领土。

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EarthCitizen
If that's the case we should ask all the signatories of the UNCLOS to give up their historic claims including great sea powers like Japan UK France and Spain.
What do you mean you are not talking about USA? The whole thing is an act of USA Pivot to Asia. You really think the Philippines want to do this by themselves if they don't have US and Japan support?
Just be careful my friend US is very good at inflicting internal or regional instability for its own gains. Look at the Middle East. Look at some countries in Latin America. US has a range of CIA operations targeting at controlling regional and foreign relations for its own gain of global dominance.

如果是这样的话，我们应该要求所有《联合国海洋法公约》的签署国，包括那些海洋强国如日本、英国、法国和西班牙，放弃他们的历史主张。
你说你不是在讨论美国是什么意思？ 整个事情就是一个美国重返亚洲的行动。如果不是得到美国和日本的支持，你真的以为菲律宾想自己干这事？
当心点儿，我的朋友。美国非常擅长制造国际或区域不稳定来从中获利。看看中东，看看拉丁美洲的某些国家。美国通过一系列中情局的手段达到控制区域和外国事务的目的，来从中获利并统治全球。

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Exocet
At no point in Chinese history have any SCS islands been occupied administered or inhabited by Han Chinese never.
What's more recorded historical and archeological proof shows that they were a relative late comer to the SCS not until late Song dynasty long after Indian Arab and south east Asian ships sailed those seas centuries before.
https://www.iseas.edu.sg/image...
And not to mention the ridiculousness on trying to draw borders based on historical rights.Imagine if Greek claimed half the Middle East based on the Alexandrian Empire. Or Italy most of Europe based on the Roman empire.

南中国海上没有任何一个岛屿在中国历史任何时期被汉人占据，管理，或者居住。
此外，有文字可考的历史证据和考古证据显示，对南海而言，他们是一个相对较晚的到访者，直到宋朝晚期才到达南海，远落后于早在几世纪前就在南海区域航行的印度、阿拉伯、和东南亚国家（https://www.iseas.edu.sg/image...）。
而且更不用提基于历史权利来划定边界是多么荒谬的事情了，想象一下，如果希腊基于亚历山大帝国宣称拥有一半的中东，或者意大利基于罗马帝国宣称拥有大部分的欧洲。

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EarthCitizen
So China sailed to Australia 1000 years earlier than the British so should the Europeans vacate Australia? The point China is trying to make is the claim has been there for more than half a century. If it's wrong why no countries opposed it before? Why did western countries reprint maps indicating the SCS as Chinese territory? Yeah much of Russia was Chinese territory ad well and China doesn't claim it but SCS is different. China has been claiming it for a long time and no one really opposed until oil was discovered.

所以如果中国比英国早1000年航行至澳大利亚，欧洲人应该撤出澳大利亚吗？中国试图表明的是，关于南海的领土主张是在半世纪之前提出的，如果有问题为什么以前没有国家反对呢？为什么西方国家的复刻地图标明南海是中国领土呢？是的，部分俄罗斯领土曾经是中国的，中国没有再声索，但是南海不同，中国在相当长一段时期宣称拥有南海，而且没有其他国家实质上反对，直到南海发现了原油。

lloyd huynh
Hi Chinese dog.my country own it for thousands of year

嗨，中国狗，我的国家已经拥有南海数千年了。

imm1
Your remark is prejudice and racist. You are not respected even you win a point

你的评论充满偏见和种族主义。哪怕你说赢了，你也不值得尊敬。

Hung Chinoy
Only after WW2 that is not a long time. There was opposition to the greedy nine dash line from the beginning.

仅仅是在二战之后，并非很长一段时间。从一开始就有国家反对贪婪的九段线了。

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EarthCitizen
China never claimed that the nine dash line was the border in any of the documents. In fact some analysis here on TNI said the latest white paper from Beijing actually indicated the nine dash line should not be treated at border line. The white paper emphasized more about the ownership of the islands instead of the water within the nine dash line.
http://nationalinterest.org/bl...
Earliest proof of China's ownership of Spratlys dates back to 1885 Sino-French war when the resulting treaty cleared border between French Indochina and China and the Spratlys is a Chinese territory. Since then most international maps all marked Spratlys Chinese territory and not much solid obxtions until when oil was found a few decades ago. These claims were further strengthened by Cairo Declaration and Potsdam Declaration post WW2 in which Japan was ordered to return occupied Spratly and Paracel islands to Republic of China instead of Philippines or Vietnam. That's why ROC published such a map with nine dash line. Although I have to agree the map is vague and does not make much sense in today's world.
What China did wrong was it wasn't assertive enough during the 1950s. Taiwan built Taiping Island in the 1950s and stationed a permanent military base there but China basically abandoned the islands between 1950 and 1980 when China itself was much poorer than most of its Asian neighbors. If China has been actively asserting its sovereignty after WW2 its claim would have been much stronger today.
There was a technical report I read a while ago made by the US military a few years ago. The conclusion is for most the Spratly and Paracel islands China has the strongest claims among all claimants.

中国从来没有在文件中宣布九段线是边界。实际上一些在TNI的分析表明，最新的北京白皮书中暗示，九段线不应该被认为是边界。白皮书强调的更多的是岛屿的主权而不是九段线中的水域。
最早的证据表明中国拥有南沙群岛要追溯到1885年中法战争，其条约中明确地划分了法属印度支那和中国的边界，其中明确的表明南沙是中国的领土。从此大部分的国际地图都表明南沙群岛是中国的领土，直到几十年前石油被发现。这些这些要求在开罗宣言和波茨坦宣言后以及二战中日本被命令返回占领的南沙和西沙群岛给中华民国而不是菲律宾或越南被进一步加强。这也是为什么中华民国出版了这样一个有九段线的地图。虽然我不得不承认地图是模糊的，在今天的世界上没有太多的意义。 
 中国在20世纪50年代唯一做错的事，并没有足够的自信。台湾在20世纪50年代修建了太平岛，并在那驻扎了永久军事基地，但中国因为比大多数亚洲邻国都要穷得多，在1950到1980之间基本上放弃了这些岛屿。如果中国二战后一直积极行使主权，今天他的主张会更强大。 
 最近我读了一个由美国军方在几年前做的技术报告，结论是大多数的南沙群岛和西沙群岛中国比其他申索国具有更强的申索权。

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geronimo
If you read The Hague ruling with an open mind you wouldn't be talking like your a paid CCP troll. Maybe you are.

如果你以一个开放心态阅读海牙法庭裁决的话，你就不会像一个收了tg的钱的五毛那样说话，也许你就是。

TDog
Yeah... he doesn't agree with you so he's a troll. Mighty high opinion of yourself you have there...

Yeah... 他不同意你所以他就是一个五毛。

EarthCitizen
I have lived in Canada for 7 years. So stop saying anyone who opposes you a CCP troll. Thanks. I have read all sides of this story and I have came to my own conclusion. So if you keep an open mind please read this article which is written by two British authors: http://nationalinterest.org/fe...

我已经在加拿大生活了7年。所以不要把任何反对你的人说成tg五毛，谢谢。我已经读过各方的报道然后得出我自己的结论。所以如果你保持一个开放的心态，请你读一下这两个英国作者的文章。（ http://nationalinterest.org/fe...）

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Hung Chinoy
The U.S. Never signed the UNCLOS. China did. The Communist Party has no honor. There is no Value in anything they sign after the tribunal decision. There will be no more value in a contract with the chinese. At least the Japanese have honor.

美国从没有签署《联合国海洋法公约》，但中国签署了。gcd没有任何荣誉感。仲裁庭裁决之后，他们签署的任何东西都没有价值，以后没有任何必要再和中国人签署合同了。至少日本人还有荣誉感。

EarthCitizen
So the US never signed it but frequently use the rules on others. That makes US a honorable country? What is this logic? So the best way for China is to exit UNCLOS to protest the ruling.
Also Japanese? The Japanese signed UNCLOS and ruled illegal by ICJ for whale fishing but they decided to ignore the ruling. Here ICJ is different from PCA in that ICJ's ruling is stronger andenforceable and Japan still decided to ignore it. So honorable.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/worl...

所以美国从来没有签署它，但频繁地用它来限制其他国家，这难道就让美国成为一个有荣誉感的国家？这是什么逻辑？所以中国最好的办法就是退出《联合国海洋法公约》来抗议裁决。
还敢说日本？日本签署了《联合国海洋法公约》，然后因捕鲸被国际法庭判决非法，但是他们决定无视判决。国际法庭不同于国际仲裁庭，国际法庭更强大和有实施性，但是日本仍然决定无视它，多么有荣誉感啊！

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Scorpion_J
Taiwan isn't going to do anything but talk with a lot of bad breath.

台湾将不会有任何行动，除了说一些废话外。

EarthCitizen
Taiwan sent warships to Taiping Island the next after the ruling was out.

裁决出来后，台湾派出战舰前往太平岛。

Scorpion_J
A few warships (if that many) ain't going to do nothing just a not so big show. If it weren't for us the communist Chinese would have gobbled that island up long ago.

几艘战舰（哪怕是很多）不会其任何作用，只是一场盛大的秀而已。要不是我们，共产主义中国早就吞掉了这个岛。

EarthCitizen
China & Taiwan are the result of an unfinished civil war. I also support Taiwan taking back China.

“中国大陆&台湾” 是一场没有结束的内战导致的结果，我还是支持台湾收复中国大陆。