从特朗普的美国,到中国,到问题隐现的欧元区和脱欧,2019年的市场和全球经济将走向何方? [英国媒体]


From Trump's America, to China, the trouble brewing in the eurozone and Brexit, what's in store for markets and the global economy in 2019


A new year is virtually upon us and anybody with an interest in financial markets and the global economy will be asking themselves what will be driving things in 2019 and is a slowdown inevitable?


Trying to get the crystal ball out to make specific predictions on exactly where stock markets and economies will be in the future is a fool's errand, but we can certainly make some good calls on what some of the major issues investors around the world will be wrestling with will be.


From Trump's America to China via the eurozone, there will be no shortage of things to watch closely.


Watch what happens with Uncle Sam


At the moment the US has a partial government shutdown due to an impasse over funding for President Trump's desire wall along the Mexico border. That could run into next week, but is expected to be a temporary issue.


A more important thing to consider is the medium term picture for the US.


As goes America goes the global economy has been a pretty reliable maxim for decades and there is still plenty of truth in it. Although a nod to China is increasingly required as well, which we will get into shortly.


Focusing on the US, there is concern building that the strong economic expansion and stock market rally of the past couple of years has run out of steam.


We have already seen shares take a dive recently. Economic growth has remained strong though so far.


Central to the concerns is US central bank the Federal Reserve and its interest rate hiking schedule. The December meeting suggested that Chairman Jerome Powell and colleagues are mulling further hikes in 2019 which will really put the financial squeeze on.


This policy is helping to generate what is generally considered an early warning of an economic slowdown; yield curve inversion.


In straightforward terms, an inverted yield curve is a situation whereby short term bonds become more expensive to issue than long term; i.e they yield more money to investors. This happens because investors see more risk to the economy in the short term than further down the line.


As with predictions of recessions in general, these things can become self-fulfilling prophecies and happen in large part simply because people think they are due to happen.


How this plays out in the first quarter of next year could be key to how 2019 turns out. A strong America can carry the world economy along while a weakening one drags everywhere else down with it.


China is the next most important component in the global economy and investors will be trying to gauge exactly how healthy the world's most populated country is economically.


Official government figures on China's economy are taken with notorious scepticism, because the closed nature of how it operates means they can't be held up to the same level of scrutiny as numbers put out in the West.


The suspicion is they are massaged for political reasons, leaving investors somewhat in the dark on what's really going on.


Debt levels are a particular concern. Very little is known about exactly how indebted China is across various parts of the economy and the extent to which these debts can be adequately serviced. The government is effectively both lender and borrower, making things exceptionally opaque.


China says it is still growing at over 6 per cent a year. Most independent estimates put it at somewhere nearer to 4 to 5 per cent.


If China can keep the show on the road at these sort of levels though then the world economy would have a good chance of avoiding a major slowdown. Any clues that it is falling well beneath this would set alarm bells off.


Global trade tensions
The global trade tensions issue overlaps heavily with the two already discussed. Ever since Donald Trump took power with a stated plan to take a tougher line on international trade and China in particular, financial markets have been enthralled by each twist in the saga.


A full scale breakdown in US trade with China and other countries in 2019 would undoubtedly weigh heavily on the global economy.


So far though this has not looked likely, as each time the rhetoric and tension has been ramped up an olive branch of some kind has subsequently been extended. While some new tariffs have come in, the trade train is on the track still.


The issue of intellectual property theft by China is a potential flashpoint which could set off an escalation in tensions though, as could any unwelcome military manoeuvres in the region.


Eurozone troubles
There is trouble brewing over in the European Union, independent from the impending departure from the bloc of its second biggest economy - the UK.


The industrial engine of the continent and largest country Germany is starting to slow down. Its economy contracted by 0.2 per cent in the third quarter of this year and various surveys such as business confidence are going firmly in the wrong direction, suggesting a recession is on the cards.


Alongside this, the EU is embroiled in a battle with a populist-governed Italy over its profligate budget plans.


The can has been kicked down the road for now in classic EU fashion, but with Emmanuel Macron's France also showing little regard for EU rules on public spending after succumbing to 'yellow vest' protests, the situation seems likely to rear its head again during 2019.


It emerged after Christmas that the EU will accept a French budget deficit in 2018 above its 3 per cent ceiling, 'as a one-time exception,' according to an itnerview with Budget Commissioner Günther Oettinger.

据欧盟预算专员Günther Oettinger在一次采访中透露,欧盟在圣诞节后,将接受法国2018年高于3%上限的预算赤字,名义是“一个一次性例外”。

All this takes place against the backdrop of the withdrawal of quantitative easing by the European Central Bank. The QE programme has been the major driver of a modest economic bounce seen across much of the eurozone in the past few years and taking it away could pull the financial rug out from under it.


There are also EU elections coming up where anti-establishment parties are expected to do much better than they have historically.


While it's often said that the bond market is what really runs the world, the oil market would be a strong contender for second place.


The price of oil has major geopolitical and economic implications and 2019 looks set to be an interesting year as far as the black stuff under the sand and sea is concerned.


After rallying sharply to over $80 a barrel earlier this year putting the pinch on household budgets around the world, oil has plunged back to much lower levels, with the OPEC cartel and others seemingly unwilling or unable to make big cuts to supply.


There are signs of cracks in OPEC appearing as Qatar pulls out over tensions with its bigger neighbour Saudi Arabia.


On 28 December 2018, a barrel of West Texas Intermediate was fetching just $45.50 while Brent crude was trading at $53.50.


Whether prices stay low or ramp back up will be an important factor to watch in 2019.


Lower prices at the petrol pumps is good news up to a point. If the oil price slips too low however it likely means demand is falling away and a global economic slowdown is looming.


What about Brexit
There's not been much mention of Brexit lately, so I almost forgot about it.


In all seriousness, although it may seem the be-all and end-all in Britain for understandable reasons, Brexit is not likely to be key to the fortunes of the world or the wider financial markets, with the US and China firmly in the driving seat.


It will of course be central to how the UK economy does in 2019. Getting some sort of resolution before March could see a huge cloud lifted and lead to a pretty decent uptick in the economy with investment coming back, stocks climbing and house prices back on a strong rise.


If the uncertainty is prolonged though, or an acrimonious breakdown in relations between the UK and EU transpires then all bets are off and economic difficulty in the short term seems likely.


….and the spectre of Corbyn


While Brexit receives most of the headlines and bluster at the moment for obvious reasons, it isn't really the biggest worry in the City.


That comes in the form of Jeremy Corbyn and his hard-left plans for the country should the Government collapse and he somehow gets his hands on the levers of power next year.


Heavy-handed state intervention would spook financial markets, shake confidence and could quite conceivably send the UK into a recession.


Corbyn seizing power does still seem an unlikely occurrence, however, particularly if Britain's withdrawal from the EU gets put to bed one way or the other in March.


Labour's deliberately ambiguous position on Brexit helped them greatly in 2017 election and in the polls since, but if the matter is taken out of the equation a large chunk of this support could evaporate.


Stu Pidd
Corbyn follows Brexit like night follows day. That's why I voted for Brexit. Didn't all the Brexiters do the same?


Stu Pidd
!Italy has managed to avert EU sanctions after reaching a compromise with the European commission over its 2019 budget." from the 19th of this month, widely reported by just about every other news media!


John Marshall
Trump and china will make a deal - it's in both their interests to. Oil will rally to about 60 or 70. Britain and the EU will hammer out a last minute deal.........


Out of the people that were in Trumps team on the First day how many are left, how many have broken the law and still hold files over him ?


London Van Man
Getting some sort of resolution, 'WHAT', i do not know where or who is painting over our situation but whoever your are let me tell you this has been a long time coming and for that alone things here are not good. High street shops here lining up to close, work expenses going up in every sector, the internet undercutting at every opportunity, councils being more and more assertive in their approach to extorting us, the doors of us removing our cash to sunny climates firmly closed. Some sort of resolution is nothing but a fantasy I'm afraid.


Hungy Hungy Hippo
Kick Chinnna's head till it splits Trump.


MJ..., Shire.
If Trump keeps trying to control and interfere with the world economy like its his own business, It will end up bankrupt like his past businesses!


Michael Stewart 70
No one f.... knows lets get real.Who forecast the 2008 crash ?.The only difference now is the bank need to have enough reserves and their is also good old QE.


The boat guy
Everyone has a crack-pot theory of what?ll happen in 2019 and it?s getting old. They?re panicking the uninformed and that?s leading to these ridiculous 600 to 1000 point swings.


Frankie who
If the EU doesn't want Corbyn then they had better give us a good Brexit and Trade Deal otherwise the Tories haven't any hope of winning the next election whenever it comes. Tory Leave voters don't even have to vote for Cornbyn they just need to abstain and a great many will do that as they are sick of this Tory Remain gov and Remainer May.


Once May shows some backbone, if anybody believes she means it, UK will be the place for all overseas investors, hoping to buy cheap and sell high.


Richard 10
Lots of issues to happen in 2019 !!


A populist free new year would be very welcome for the markets,it has created worldwide mayhem this year.


Next year is going to Britain's worst year ever. And I include both world wars.


don't be daft!


I see inflation coming back to the uk economy no matter what ,,,, increasing interest rates ,,, eventually the eu will back down on the backstop ,, because no way should it be voted through in current form and MAY will probably extend article 50 to get a deal through ,, She should not however hand over any money until a trade deal is finalized


I totally agree. Inflation will come back with vengeance. Nothing to do with brexit. Raw materials and labour rates are increasing fast in the Far East and costs are rising globally. It could be sharp and uncontrollable.


DJ Alison Wonderland
The NWO globalists miss the previous muppet who flew around the world bowing and apologizing all while leading from behind.


Johnny BeeBad
Look into my eyes ....... look into my eyes ........... I predict the Market 2019 will be turbulent ........ some days down, some days up ....... the same for 2020 and eternity.


You are describing climate change.


The whole world, not only America, is certainly being made great again!


Ron J. Johannesburg
Run Johannesburg Sage of the West, does not see a recession until another couple of years. We are due for another stock market rally at some point before we go into true bear-market mode. But please don't invest your retiremenr based on this advice. Thank you.


Who is Trump not at war with now? He has gone through about 2 teams. Has the USA in lock down. Has trade wars going across the world and his only friend is Putin for some reason ?


97% of the laws and rules passed in the EU were the ones the UK Government backed. We got out of the Euro, working time and other special deals.


the Dean
get out of the ecomic corpe they call europe now


andy dufresne
The big one is coming.


Agreed. The media is hell bent on electing another socialist president. When that happens, turn your savings into precious metals because our economy will assuredly tailspin.